So far in 2022, energy investors have been some of the only equity holders rewarded, with the sector up approximately 30% year to date, and the only S&P 500 sector in positive territory. While we remain positive on that sector and do not see a dramatic reversal lower in crude prices, any easing of the constant upward pressure on energy prices like we have seen recently could still allow energy companies to thrive, while providing relief to consumers and the current inflation dynamic.
Though the weekly gain was a welcome respite from the market’s downward trend, declining bond yields and falling food and energy prices can also be interpreted as signs of slowing economic growth, which may represent a headwind for corporate earnings in the months ahead.
Our resurgent economy grew at over a 6% pace in the first half of the year and is on track
for over 5% growth for the year when 2021 draws to a close. The current economic recovery,
which started in May 2020, has benefited from widespread vaccine availability and
additional fiscal stimulus. While the economy continues to move forward, we’re still
feeling the aftershocks of the COVID-19 Delta variant, whether through elevated inflation,
supply chain bottlenecks, or an imbalanced labor market. But 2021 also saw positives
MORE THAN MOST YEARS, it’s hard to look ahead to the next year, to 2021, without looking back at 2020. A global pandemic, a massive economic collapse, a bear market, a surprisingly sharp reversal, a hotly contested election where passions ran high, the impact of lockdowns—it was an unusual year of extraordinary challenges. In 2021 it’s time to restart the engines, but things are going to look different, feel different. 2020
has changed us, the way we do business, the way we connect. It’s also shown us our constants, what works for us, and what we hold on to.
AT LPL RESEARCH, as we look forward to the year 2020 and a new decade, some key trends and market signals will be important to watch, including progress on U.S.-China trade discussions, an encouraging outlook from corporate America, and continued strength in consumer spending. Trade risk, slower global growth,
AFTER NEARLY 10 YEARS of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover—and thrive—investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. Despite the market weakness we saw at the end of 2018, at LPL Research we expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2019 and support gains for stocks.
Over the past eight years extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has served as the primary catalyst for spurring continued economic growth in the U.S. and around the globe.
Stock markets, bond markets, the economy, policy — some years they push and pull on each other lightly as markets follow their own path; in others, one influence, such as monetary policy, dominates. But sometimes, often following a period of change, understanding the pushes and pulls and how they interact becomes a key to reassessing market dynamics for the next year and beyond.